The 2008 Presidential Numbers Game
by Vera H-C ChanSep 9, 2008
John McCain's campaign manager called the presidential election more about character than about issues, but—as the earlier delegates situation showed—the 2008 contest has always been a numbers game.
CNN reports that McCain has passed Barack Obama in several national surveys. However, the Democratic candidate may still hold ground in numbers that really get a person into the Oval Office: electoral college votes ... but more on this later.
Web interest (not always a sign of popularity, but definitely an indicator of curiosity) has shifted as well, but that picture isn't so clear-cut either. Searches for “john mccain” scooted past “barack obama” on August 29 and 30th, lost ground for the next two days, and then asserted a tight lead Sept. 2, a big boost on Sept. 4, then back to a tight lead.
However, when different searches are combined, a different story emerges. Barack Obama—also queried as “barack hussein obama,” “senator barack obama,” “democrat barack obama” and misspelled as “barrack” and “brack”—is now mostly commonly referred to as plain ol’ “obama.”
Obama then not only holds the surname lead over “mccain,” but if the variations of their names are added up, the Democratic candidate consistently pulls in more Search curiosity than his Republican counterpart... except on September 5, 2008, the day after the RNC acceptance speech. McCain scored a 2% margin in Web interest. The last time McCain got the edge on Obama was October 11, 2006.
Again, this Search see-saw isn't necessarily positive for either side. Thousands of citizens are still investigating pesistent rumors, tracking voting records, sniffing out scandals, and combing through their family trees.
Ultimately, the results will come down to complicated math. The United States is rare in its continued use of the electoral college, the founding fathers' compromise between the direct votes and a legislative pick. Ironically, the electoral college emerged partly out of the belief that "gentlemen" shouldn't stoop to campaigning: "The office should seek the man, the man should not seek the office." (Not that behind-the-scenes politicking didn't occur, as one public radio report outlines.) The U.S. National Archives devotes a site to the whole electoral college concept ... and efforts to change it.
Meanwhile, many searchers already monitor "electoral votes," the "2008 electoral map" (+69%), and "electoral votes by state" (20%).
That explains the focus on so-called battleground states, in which neighbor is pitted against neigbor. Electoral votes notwithstanding, people want their individual voice heard. Online lookups persist on "am I registered to vote," "how do I register to vote," and—a most modern twist in an old-fashioned system—"how to register to vote online."