Obama and the dawn of the Fourth Republic

It's intriguing theory, but too simplistic. While I could accept the ide that Obama represents a new era--this idea of 70-something-year-old republics, is stretching it. Its the great fun of historical reexamination to arbitrarily assign different eras based on special elections. But the problem with all that is that there are many movements within movements. Most historians would argue that the momentuous events of the 1960s are too grand to merely place within an era--in short they constitute a watershed unto themselves. I also don't like the idea of basic Republics because no matter how radical a new administration may turn out to be, it always comes in with some desire to keep continuity. Not so fast.

The hope is certainly that President Barack Obama will be a transformative leader, however, the reality is one of wait and see. The theory of 70 year cycles is certainly intriguing but lends itself to the belief that people do not fundamentally change their patterns of behavior. I hope we are less predictable than the author suggests.